My Hall of Fame Ballot
Wizards should be releasing the ballots for this year’s ProTour Hall of Fame any week now. I think this year is a “catch up” year. There are 2-3 obvious HoFers who are on the ballot for the first time (Antoine Ruel, Kamiel Corneleissen, and probably Frank Karsten) but after that I think we should allbe debating which old-timers deserve a spot. From my seat, that conversation boils down to Steve O’Mahoney-Schwartz, Chris Pikula, and Justin Gary. You could make a case for a few others (Billy Jensen, Scott Johns and Mark Justice in particular) and folks will make cases that I don’t personally believe in for some other fine folks (Pat Chapin, Antonino De Rosa and Alex Shvartsman), but here’s the way I see it and the way I’m voting:
The case for Chris
I like that the Hall of Fame is about more than just results. Chris had a decent career as a player - 3 PT Top 8’s, 4 GP Top 8’s, an Invitational win – but there aren’t enough slots available to let in everyone with that resume. Instead the case for Chris is all about the tremendous impact he had on the game as a personality and a community builder. I made this case in my year 1 ballot, and upon re-reading that I’m really happy with it. It’s probably one of the best things I ever wrote about the Pro Tour and I’d encourage you to go follow that link now.Seriously, I want to say all those things again, but I’m not going to be able to write them any better. I’ll wait.
In addition, we have an opportunity this year to try to right a wrong on Chris’s behalf. Lots of folks (myself included), think it was a mistake for Wizards to take away his Meddling Mage art when they reprinted the card. Let’s give Chris a ring to replace it with.
The case for Steve
Pop quiz time: Who has more lifetime Pro Points – Mike Turian or Steve OMS? (The answer is Steve, at 237.) Who has more Grand Prix Top 8’s –Dirk Baberowski, Ben Rubin, or Steve OMS? (Steve has more than those two combined, 3 to 6 to 10.) How many people have finished Top 4 in two different Player of the Year races and then failed to get voted into the Hall of Fame? (Just Steve.)
I guess folks are looking at the mere 3 Pro Tour Top 8’s on Steve’s resume and deciding that somehow doesn’t measure up, but that just seems short-sighted to me. If we decided to make a big deal about finals or semi-finals appearances then his 3would look really good (he’s got a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rdin his three Sunday appearances). Meanwhile, if we were including Junior Pro Tour results in these stats then he would look even better.
Mostly, the case for Steve OMS is that for about 4-5 years he was one of the best couple of players in the game. He’s a bit overshadowed by his buddy Jon, but it was Steve who taught first the east coast and then the Pro Tour how to draft. It was Steve who won the most Grand Prix when Jon,Steve, and I became the first players to start traveling internationally for them. And it’s Steve who is the most deserving of a catch-up vote for the ProTour Hall of Fame this year. He finished 7th, 10th, and 7ththe last three years so I think he’s got a very legitimate shot this year.
The case for Justin
If you liked my year 1 ballot and you’re on a roll, here’s a link to my year 2 ballot as well. I think it’s decent, but I’m not as proud of it, especially since my statistical argument against Justin Gary is just wrong. The stat I was grasping for but failed to find at the time is “peak median finish.” Median finish seems like a good way in theory to judge which players were consistently good rather than which caught the lucky breaks necessary to put up a bunch of Top 8’s. However, median finish is dragged down by all the times guys will show up for Tour after their prime is over just because it’s fun to hang out and play. That shouldn’t somehow make them *worse* candidates, right? So take everyone’s best 3-year run and look at their median finish during that run … and Justin Gary in his prime is revealed as one of the best on Tour with an outstanding peak median finish of 25th.That’s actually better than all five guys who got voted in last year, and the only person on the ballot with a better run is Mark Justice. Meanwhile, he’s also got two US national team appearances, including an individual win for himself and a team world championship.
Justin is competing with Karsten for a spot on my ballot right now. Their resumes are pretty similar with 3 Top 8’s each. Justin has the US Nationals performances but Karsten has 30 more lifetime Pro Points (280 to250). I suspect that Karsten’s writing and community building efforts will ultimately get him the nod, but I want to see the official WotC stats and listen to what others have to say about this year’s ballot before I finally make up my mind.
Randy Buehler’s Ballot:
Antoine Ruel
Steve O’Mahoney-Schwartz
Kamiel Corneleissen
Chris Pikula
Justin Gary / Frank Karsten
I think last year (or the year before) you mentioned that you believed in your heart that Mark Justice was cheating at the height of his PT success and that this disqualified him from the HoF in your opinion. You never really elaborated on this though. I've always heard that Mike Long was one of the most savage cheaters of all time, so it didn't surprise me that you ruled him out, but that was actually the first time I ever heard anyone say something to that effect about Justice. I'd be interested in a follow up entry on this subject, if you feel so inclined.
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I don't enjoy the furor around Long et al as most people, esp on the internet, seem to turn their brains off and argue emotionally and irrationally. I should have mentioned Long in my first paragraph as someone worth considering, but I didn't want to distract my readers from the more interesting stuff that I wanted to say in the body of the article.
My original theory was to try to figure out how good I think someone's results would have been if they weren't cheating. It's impossible to know, of course, and now with the new threshold system I think it's largely moot because you're highly disincentivized to vote for anyone that isn't popular enough to get to 40%. I do believe both Long and Justice were extremely talented, but at this point the consensus of the committee seems to be that we don't want these guys in our Hall of Fame despite the fact that Justice was the very first "current best player in the game" and Long was the second.
How many people do you guys think are on that list, by the way? The "best in the game right now" list? I've got it as Justice to Long to Finkel to Budde to Nassif to Kenji to LSV. I can see a case for Oiso having this mantle between Nassif and Kenji, and Bob might also belong on the list (and Rosewater will argue for Rade though I don't buy it). It's also possible that everyone after Nassif should just be taken off because Gab has actually quietly been the best the entire time seem since Budde faded.
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An interesting evaluation. I hope I don't divert the intent of your post; I feel the case can be made a bit stronger
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I sometimes wonder how many people got screwed by variance and should be getting a lot more credit than they are. As well as how many people are getting way more credit than they deserve.
Other than that I don't really have any useful input. I guess personally I give more weight to results in later years (less competition and more cheating in early years) but not really sure how that would affect my decisions for this year.
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I first got into Magic around the summer of '97 and my appreciation of the "current best player in the world" at the time was heavily influenced by who was running hot in tournaments at the time (and thus, being written about in The Duelist). So I perceived the "best in the world right now" players to be Justice circa 96, Rade 97, and then 98-2000 it was none other than Jonny Magic. I think if it hadn't been for Jon, Bob would have at some point been seen as the best, but as it was he was sort of in Jon's shadow. I guess you could make a case for Long in the late 90s as he always seemed to do well for himself. Also, Long got invited to a decent number of Invitationals IIRC, so maybe I just think of him as being more of a huge name than I should. I think most people put a little too much stock in those. I guess Kai sort of took over from 2001-2003 and I got out of the game just before Gabriel got hot. Now I'm just getting back into it casually in 2009.
I think Anton brings up an amazing point in talking about variance and how there is probably a lot of results oriented thinking in Magic. This isn't something I really thought too much about before I started playing poker (did any of us?) But obviously this sort of goes back to Olle Rade and how he was the man for a while, but over a relatively smaller sample size.
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An interesting evaluation. I hope I don't divert the intent of your post; I feel the case can be made a bit stronger for Long, after Olivier's induction last year. Especially when you consider his mediocre defense posted on SCG during the voting. I know Olivier is well liked personally, but the fact remains that he has faced multiple bannings.
Long was arguably the best player in the game at one time; even without cheating, it is not difficult to imagine his numbers would have been quite high.
In the past, I would have supported the general consensus of not inducting Long in light of his cheating and subsequent bannings from the DCI. But I feel that last year's induction of Olivier set a new precedent and requires us to re-evaluate "the Long question".
As an aside, I understand Maher faced suspension, but I could see a case of the DCI pardoning him (if they were to find pardoning appropriate). This would have allowed his induction and keep the integrity of the HoF.
While I have heard about some of Justice's questionable playing, I'm not entirely familiar with the issue outside of here-say from other early-year-pros.
I'm glad I got connected to your blog through Twitter, Randy. Another interesting post.
-Brandon
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I agree with Brandon to in some respects. Enough time has passed. At this point, we can argue that at least 1 "cheater" has been voted into the HoF already. For many years, watching the PT as a spectator, involved watching the theatrics of Mike Long. He brought a new level of spectatorship and interest to the Professional Game. It's time that we recognize that his contributions in the early years, were very important for the growth of the Pro Tour itself.
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That being said .. I would like to see Pikula and Steve OMS in the HoF as well, to bring a certain level of added legitimacy to it as well.
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Hacker needs to be in...but did he fall off the list?
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I certainly agree with Hacker. I have zero input whatsoever, but I've been wanting to see people vote for him since the first ballot.
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http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/HallOfFame.aspx?x=mtgevent/hof/2009ballot
The Rules, Ballots, Selection Commitee, etc... have been updated and the new website went live today.
Yes... Hacker is no longer eligible for selection.
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I am a relatively new player and was wondering about Mark Justice. When I went and looked at his stats, they are miles better then everyone else on the ballot. Is there somewhere where I can read about his cheating or alleged misconduct? Otherwise for someone who was never around when the winning took place its a little jarring to see someone with what appears to be miles better accomplishments not on anyone's ballot.
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Hey Randy,
is the finishing position in prior votes accessible online ? Also, thanks for making me feel better about deciding to vote SteveO, I knew it was the right play, just didn't have any numbers to back it up with
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Previous voting results, among other things, are available here: http://www.wizards.com/Magic/Magazine/HallOfFame.aspx?x=mtgevent/hof/welcome
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While I'm not certain that he has the numbers to make it on results alone, one player I think deserves serious thought based on contributions to the game is Masahiro Kuroda. With the way the Japanese have taken over the game in recent years, being the first Japanese player to win a pro tour seems like a very significant accomplishment. If there was an actual brick & mortar hall of fame building like most American professional sports have, you'd almost certainly want to have a section about the Japanese and Kuroda would be a significant part of that.
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Hi Randy, I didn't even realize you weren't at Wizards until stumbling upon this blog, which is great by the way!
I want to follow up on the Mark Justice confusion; I'm such a crazy Spike that I actually bought Mark Justice's Magic strategy book a few years ago on a whim. It was a great read, taught me some things, and certainly was no indication whatsoever that he had had problems with cheating. Obviously why would he discuss it, right? Well, in any case, I am also curious...
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Richard .. Regarding Mark Justice, from my memory: 1) Justice tried to incite a Riot at the Pro Tour that David Mills was DQ from the Top 4. 2) He tried to organized the first Player's Union for Magic. 3) He was very good friends with Mike Long, and often worked together on all aspects of the game. 4) He was known to have change his maindeck's composition at 94 US Nats and/or 95 US Nats giving him an advantage in the Top 8 of that event, which caused a change to the Floor Rules. 5) He had a super short pro career, after getting involved in some drug and/or alcohol addictions issues, more or less causing him to leave Magic for good and prematurely. 6) In the Book, Magic The Gathering Advanced Stragety Guide, he wrote an entire chapter called 'Magic Ethics' which was dedicated to pushing the limits of fair play, jedi mind tricks, and basically encouraged behavior that people deemed as cheating, in a How-To manual.
In that same book, he posted a deck of mine known as 'Druid Misery', which was one of the earlist tournament winning combo decks too, btw.
Does that help, Richard?
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Of all of the original Magic Personalities... I wish that George Baxter would have been Hall of Fame capable, but his stellar career was primarily prior to the Pro Tour itself.
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Randy, I'm working on my ballot now, got my list down to nine players and then got pointed to this blog. My nine are the first nine guys you mentioned here. Thanks for the help
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Pop quiz time: Who has more lifetime Pro Points – Mike Turian or Steve OMS? (The answer is Steve, at 237.) Who has more Grand Prix Top 8’s –Dirk Baberowski, Ben Rubin, or Steve OMS? (Steve has more than those two combined, 3 to 6 to 10.) How many people have finished Top 4 in two different Player of the Year races and then failed to get voted into the Hall of Fame? (Just Steve.)
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I guess folks are looking at the mere 3 Pro Tour Top 8’s on Steve’s resume and deciding that somehow doesn’t measure up, but that just seems short-sighted to me. If we decided to make a big deal about finals or semi-finals appearances then his 3would look really good (he’s got a 1st, a 2nd, and a 3rdin his three Sunday appearances). Meanwhile, if we were including Junior Pro Tour results in these stats then he would look even better.
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Of all of the original Magic Personalities... I wish that George Baxter would have been Hall of Fame capable, but his stellar career was primarily prior to the Pro Tour itself.
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I certainly agree with Hacker. I have zero input whatsoever, but I've been wanting to see people vote for him since the first ballot.
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I'm not sure about the "best all-around shortstop" tag, but Concepcion was indeed a great fielder. In fact, he's the only person on the ballot whose primary claim to fame was his glove, and WPA doesn't include any credit for glovework. Let's see if we can adjust for that omission.
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Agree with you, man.Everything is so doubtful here,so doubtful!
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What doubtful it is very clear to understand..
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I would like to see Pikula and Steve OMS in the HoF as well, to bring a certain level of added legitimacy to it as well.
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got my list down to nine players and then got pointed to this blog. My nine are the first nine guys you mentioned here. Thanks for the help
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